高大伟David Gosset

法国里昂商学院高级顾问
法国里昂商学院美好商业中心学术委员会成员
中欧美全球倡议发起人
《中国与世界》三卷书主编
“灵感”系列发起人

法国里昂商学院高级顾问，中欧美全球倡议发起人，《中国与世界》三卷书主编，“灵感”系列发起人，该系列书籍旨在向世界介绍中国。

The visit of Chinese President Xi Jinping to Russia, where he will stand alongside President Vladimir Putin to commemorate the 80th anniversary of Victory Day, is a powerful symbol of the strengthening relationship between China and Russia. Those in the United States who might hope for signs of division between these two global powers are likely to be disappointed. Instead of showing any cracks, the relationship between Beijing and Moscow appears to be entering a new phase of deepened cooperation and strategic understanding.

Over the past year, bilateral trade between China and Russia reached a record high, highlighting the growing economic ties between the two countries. Beyond trade, people-to-people exchanges are increasing, signaling a mutual interest in cultural and societal cooperation. Russia offers an abundance of natural resources, including oil, gas, and minerals—resources that China's vast and growing economy needs. At the same time, both countries are investing heavily in scientific and technological collaboration, recognizing that partnership in these fields can yield mutual benefits in an increasingly competitive global environment.

While political developments in the West, particularly in the United States, may offer the appearance of new diplomatic openings, they are unlikely to weaken the bonds between China and Russia. U.S. President Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin have both expressed a willingness to end the war in Ukraine and to improve U.S.-Russia relations. Some might view this as an opportunity for the United States to drive a wedge between Moscow and Beijing. However, such hopes overlook the deeper structural changes that now define Sino-Russian relations.

There are at least three major reasons why these efforts will not succeed in weakening the Beijing-Moscow partnership. First, Trump's vision of American dominance—clearly articulated in his address to Congress in March, where he declared his intention for the United States to dominate the world as never before—is fundamentally at odds with the worldviews of both China and Russia. For Beijing and Moscow, a unipolar world order led by the United States is unacceptable. They advocate instead for a multipolar world, where several powers share influence and shape global affairs more equitably.

Second, Donald Trump has initiated a second trade war with China, one that is even more intense than the first and whose outcome remains highly uncertain. In response, China is likely to strengthen its ties with the Global South and reaffirm its strategic partnership with Russia.

Third, the current synergy between China and Russia is not based on reaction to external pressures, such as U.S. policy or military posture. Rather, it is rooted in a genuine strategic alignment between the two nations. In the 1960s, the Sino-Soviet split created a rift that was famously exploited by Henry Kissinger to realign the global balance of power. Today, however, the dynamics are different. The China-Russia relationship in the 21st century is not defined by temporary political calculations but by shared long- term interests, including regional security, economic integration, and technological advancement.

Of course, no international relationship is without its challenges. There are still differences between China and Russia in areas such as Central Asia or approaches to certain global issues. However, both governments appear to understand the broader benefits of cooperation and are committed to managing their differences pragmatically.

We are living in a unique moment in world history, where the traditional structures of power are shifting. The close partnership between the largest country in the world by territory, Russia, and its massive and economically dynamic neighbor, China, represents a new pillar in global geopolitics. Their cooperation transcends tactical convenience and instead rests on a foundation of mutual strategic interest and a shared vision of the future.

In this context, it is unrealistic to expect that improved U.S.- Russia relations alone—assuming they materialize—will weaken the Sino-Russian bond. The relationship between Beijing and Moscow has matured into a multidimensional partnership, increasingly independent of third-party influence and firmly focused on long-term goals. As the world moves toward a more multipolar order, the China-Russia relationship is poised to remain a central force shaping the global landscape.

Amid the evolving strategic alignment between China and Russia and the shifting dynamics of global power, it is essential not to abandon efforts to establish a new nuclear arms control treaty— one that includes and is supported by the United States, China, and Russia. Despite rising tensions and rivalries between the U.S. on one side and China and Russia on the other, the existential threat posed by nuclear weapons transcends geopolitical competition. A renewed treaty would not only mitigate the risk of catastrophic conflict in the atomic age but also represent a crucial step toward rebuilding trust and fostering dialogue among the world's major powers. Such a multilateral agreement could serve as a stabilizing force in an increasingly fragmented international system, reaffirming a shared commitment to global security and the long- term survival of humanity.